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| Space Shuttle Columbia model at NASA MSFC - July 2008 |
With historical awe
over the Apollo Saturn V days and the excitement over a “monster”
heavy-lift rocket, large launchers get all the attention. I can
understand the appeal. Our ability to put huge payloads into orbit is
impressive, almost inconceivable. Watching one of these giant rockets
light and ascend to the heavens is spectacular. They deserve the
attention they command.
And yet, under the
radar, smaller launchers are aiming to revolutionize how we put
objects into space. New small satellite launch vehicles (smallsat
launchers) hope to deliver small payloads into orbit quickly and
reliably for a much lower cost than what is currently available on
the market. There is a huge pent-up demand for smallsat (cubesat,
nanosat, microsat, etc.) launch and therefore a built-in initial
customer base for any new launcher that can deliver as promised.
My first report for a client was a look at the smallsat
launch vehicle markets. It demanded most of my time for a few months,
but I’m proud announce it was published in September. Since then,
I’ve published two follow-up articles on the subject. On December
14, my colleague and I will host a free webinar on smallsats and
launchers.
I’ve been
privileged to watch several types of rocket launches in Florida:
Space Shuttle, Delta II, Delta IV, Atlas V, Falcon 1, and Falcon 9. However, I have yet
to see a smallsat launcher take to the skies. Most of these small
launchers aren't operational yet. In the United States, only Orbital
ATK's Pegasus is what I’d classify as a small launch vehicle
currently in operation. Pegasus is currently scheduled to launch from
Cape Canaveral on December 12, but sadly I moved away from Florida
and therefore will only be able to watch the video The last time
Pegasus launched from the Space Coast, it was 2003 and I was a
freshman in college not yet paying attention to non-crewed rocket
launches.
I had hoped my
previous employer would succeed with an air launch to orbit system
similar to how Pegasus launches payloads to space. However, I now
believe they have a low likelihood of succeeding, which is a shame. I
hope I’m wrong. But the truth is, that not many of the nearly 50
smallsat launch systems will become operational. I have my favorites,
but I’m not clairvoyant. Right before Firefly announced their
financial difficulties that furloughed their staff, I praised their
Alpha rocket as having a high likelihood of success. Surprises happen
all the time.
The top companies I
foresee succeeding in this area are Generation Orbit, Rocket Lab,
Vector Space Systems, and Virgin Galactic. I’d love to see a Rocket
Lab launch out of New Zealand someday, but given the distances, I'm
more likely to see a smallsat launch from the United States. More
than one of these companies plans to launch from Florida. I’d take
a special trip down to the Sunshine State to see a future launch of
one of these new vehicles! History will be made in the next few years
in the smallsat launch vehicle industry.
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| The last launch I saw before moving - ULA Atlas V, July 2016 |
