What Inspires Space Millennials?

Original image by NASA
Will millennials become the Artemis Generation?

“I have a celebrity crush on Elon Musk. I love his brazen, fearless approach. I see him doing more than just energizing space exploration itself; I see him inspiring my generation to be bold and fearless in the face of 'impossible' missions.”
- Interviewee quote from Rise of the Space Age Millennials.

Apollo inspired a generation. In a short time, NASA accomplished the seemingly impossible. The iconic Apollo 11 Moon landing unified much of the world as people from all walks of life gathered around TVs to watch those first steps into a new era.

Many from the Baby Boomer generation (born 1946 – 1964) remember this defining moment from their childhood or early adulthood. Some were so captivated by the moment and the movement, they pursued space careers and remained lifelong advocates of space exploration.

Last summer, the United States celebrated the 50^th anniversary of Apollo 11 with great fanfare and reflection. Nostalgic essays, books, and films looked back on the grand days of the early space program and the feats NASA was able to accomplish.

But for many, including millennials (born approximately 1981 – 2000), Apollo 50^th anniversary celebrations were a source of frustration. Millennials were not yet born during those glory days. No one from the millennial generation or Generation Z (born approximately after 2000), and many from Generation X (born approximately 1965 – 1980) have ever seen humans step foot on another world. If we could land humans on the Moon 50 years ago, why can't we do so today?

Older millennials grew up during the era of the Space Shuttle program. For many, their source of inspiration were astronauts floating in the International Space Station, doing somersaults, playing with droplets of water, and advancing science. For many millennials in the United States, the space shuttles were all they knew of vehicles capable of taking humans off-world.

Robotic space voyagers also served as a source of inspiration for generations born after Apollo. Mars rovers Pathfinder's Sojourner (landed 1997), Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity (landed 2004), and Mars Science Laboratory's Curiosity (landed 2012) brought the red planet into the imaginations of the millennial generation. The astrophysics-advancing Hubble Space Telescope (launched 1990), Saturn-exploring Cassini–Huygens (launched 1997), Pluto-imaging New Horizons (launched 2006), and exoplanet-hunting Kepler Space Telescope (launched 2009) are also among the missions that inspired millennials to contemplate the cosmos.

But by far, the #1 source of inspiration and excitement cited by over 100 millennials I interviewed for my upcoming book, Rise of the Space Age Millennials (released January 17, 2020), is the emerging commercial space industry, or “NewSpace.” Top of the list: SpaceX with its charismatic founder Elon Musk and its impressive rocket booster landings, enormous Starship, and ambitious plans, including human missions to the Moon and Mars. The quote at the top is by a millennial interviewee in Space Millennials and echoes many of the other interviewees' sentiments.

With feats never before seen (landing two rocket boosters back to the ground simultaneously) to public-engaging showmanship (launching a Falcon Heavy carrying a Tesla Roadster with a spacesuited mannequin playing David Bowie music), it's no surprise SpaceX motivates and excites millennials just now entering and growing in their space careers. Other sources of NewSpace inspiration from my millennial interviewees: Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, and Bigelow Aerospace.

This isn't to say Apollo didn't also inspire millennials. Apollo inspired me when I was a child. NASA's current human exploration Moon-to-Mars program Artemis calls the explorers of this time the Artemis Generation. When humanity returns to our nearest celestial neighbor again, many will be inspired for generations to come. Perhaps, with determination, luck, and public-private partnerships, millennials and Generation Z will be celebrating the Apollo 11 centennial from on the Moon in 2069.

Rising Space Millennials to Mars & Beyond

Mars image courtesy of NASA

Astronauts landing on Mars. Permanent settlements on the Moon and Mars. Private space stations. Advanced rocket propulsion. Deep space tourism cruises. The discovery of life on one of our Solar System moons or a distant exoplanet. Even global peace and unity through space activity. These are some of the predictions and dreams space millennials have for their time in the workforce as described in my upcoming book, Rise of the Space Age Millennials.

The summer of 2019 was all about reliving the glory days of Apollo (as we remember them now). The astounding achievement of landing astronauts on the Moon in 1969 deserves the praise and celebration it received 50 years later. Written accounts and oral histories contributed to our nostalgic reflections on what we've accomplished over the past half-century.

Relatively few pondered what we'll accomplish over the next half-century. Where will humanity be in space when we celebrate the centennial of the Apollo 11 lunar landing? Can you imagine 2069?

The generations that built the early space age will be long gone by then. The current rising working generation of millennials will be nearing retirement. Generation Z and the generations to come will be carrying the torch forward for humanity into the cosmos. I asked approximately 100 millennials working in the space sector or studying to work in the space sector what they hope we will accomplish before we retire.

Refreshingly, their outlook was bright! A few cynics offered skepticism we'd get much farther out into space than we already are. But the vast majority of respondents had lofty goals and high expectations. I fully admit to a selection bias in my sample. All respondents were working or pursuing work in a field they love and only those willing to share their dreams with me responded. There's also something to be said for the optimism of youth before it's crushed into realism and cynicism by delayed projects, canceled programs, and broken promises. And yet, millennials in their 20s and 30s who have already seen their share of shifting priorities and timelines still remained optimistic.

Mars Mars Mars. No destination calls to millennials the way Mars does. Many millennials shared my desire to return humans to the Moon, but almost universally, Mars was the most important goal. Just about every one of the millennials respondents believes they will witness humans land on the red planet in their lifetimes. NASA's current focus on taking the Artemis Generation to the Moon, then Mars, just as Constellation and other programs previously promised, is in line with millennial expectations for the future. Whether it's a government program or a private company such as SpaceX, millennials assume a future on Mars.

How we get to Mars is still an area of active debate. Some millennials call for a push reminiscent of the Apollo era, complete with an Apollo-sized NASA budget, to achieve a grand goal for the global space community. Some millennials call for a more incremental approach, improving life support systems, radiation shielding, and propulsion technology before sending our pioneering astronauts deeper into space than ever before. Some call for a large government initiative while others put their faith in the ambitious of innovative new companies. The path we take is still to be written.

Who participates will look different than the Right Stuff astronauts of 50 years ago. Millennials in the United States represent a more diverse racial, ethnic, and cultural population than previous generations. Each successive generation is getting more diverse. On average, millennials also value diversity and inclusivity more than their older colleagues. Many millennials I interviewed mentioned the imperative of a more representative space workforce and the importance of involving the international community. Future human expeditions to Mars will be more representative of the global population.

It was a pleasure getting to know my peers better through these interviews. For more insights on these topics or others, I invite you to read Rise of the Space Age Millennials (released January 17, 2020).

Sciencing It Up with Baby at the Business Table

I'm beginning to be a little more open about something I've mostly kept quiet about: I work at home with my baby. This may not be surprising if know that my baby is young, just 3 months old. My two-week maternity leave coincided with the Christmas and New Year holidays, and I've been working part-time ever since. I'm no stranger to working at home. I worked at home in my previously job and only drove into the office when it made sense to. I love working from home and feel that I'm more productive and happier here than in an office environment. Plus, it's a big money saver: no daycare costs, no commute, and no office lease. It's not for everyone, but it is for me.

With one exception that I've already already written about, I separate myself from my baby when I attend professional gatherings. Any time I've gone out as a professional for a meeting, workshop, or lecture, I leave the baby at home. Thankfully, my husband also has the freedom to work from home occasionally. Part-time daycare doesn't exist here and we haven't interviewed any babysitters yet, so we've been fortunate that either one or the other of us can watch the baby during working hours.

Yesterday, it just so happened that a meeting I had was at the same time as back-to-back meetings my husband had. My choices were to either cancel or take her with me. I strapped her in the car and brought her along for the ride. Josephine's first science meeting!

I can understand the disruption that some babies might cause. There might be screaming so loud and continuous such that conversation is futile. There might be banging of toys or shaking of rattles. There might be babbling. There might be smells.

At this time, my baby is pretty easy-going. When I wrap her to me, she discretely eats and sleeps. When she's unwrapped, she looks about and stares. She might start softly complaining, but I can quiet her pretty easily now (until 10 PM when she's overly tired and just won't sleep). The biggest disturbance she causes is just by being cute and drawing the attention of those around her.

The meeting yesterday at my alma mater, Florida Institute of Technology, was productive. University faculty and students met with NASA Kennedy Space Center scientists and myself in an effort to move forward with a Martian regolith biochemistry experiment. We got to check out the huge vacuum chamber that NASA KSC gifted the university, currently being refurbished. Martian regolith simulant will be processed in Martian atmospheric conditions. Separate temperature and humidity controlled containers will house crop experiments in the Martian simulant soil. It'll be fun!

Florida Institute of Technology's NASA vacuum chamber, in progress - March 24, 2016

A decade ago, I walked those halls carrying a backpack filled with science books, notes, and dreams. Yesterday, I walked those halls carrying a baby, a bit of science expertise, and even bigger dreams. How times change!

For her part, Josephine did just great on her first trip to a college campus. She was quiet, attentive, and only had one moment of projectile spit-up as we were heading for the elevators. I'm grateful that the colleagues I met with yesterday were so understanding and welcoming of a baby.

I'm hoping that I can continue to take the baby with me to professional meetings and gatherings as circumstances allow. I remember my mom the lawyer taking me with her to her office and to court when I was young. If I can do that, if I can to set an example and help change mindsets, maybe the business culture will change. Women who feel that they must disappear from their professions for months after a baby is born will either avoid those professions or avoid becoming mothers. If I can do both, so can others.

Baby Josephine says, "Fly me to the Moon, and let me play among the stars." - March 18, 2016

Imagining A Mission to Jupiter's Ganymede with Planetary Science Summer School

Group shot - PSSS Session 1 - July 2010

The application deadline for the NASA Planetary Science Summer School at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California is approaching, and I realized that I hadn't yet written about my own PSSS experience six years ago. Rereading our paper and looking at photos just now, I remembered that I had met a few of my friends and colleagues through that experience. I present to you:

Ganymede Interior, Surface, and Magnetometer Orbiter, or, GISMO.

Planetary Science Summer School is a one-week bootcamp. Fourteen of us planetary science and engineering graduate students and post-docs gathered for the first session of PSSS in July 2010. We had been emailing back and forth for a month or so, throwing around ideas and getting to know each other. It was through these exchanges that we settled on our mission to Ganymede, Jupiter's largest moon and the only moon known to have its own magnetosphere (magnetic field).

I was assigned the positions of Planetary Protection (protecting other worlds from us) and Education & Public Outreach (EPO). I was tasked with creating our protocols and objectives for protecting Ganymede and nearby worlds such as Europa from contamination and educating the public, especially students.

Protecting the solar system from us humans - July 2010

Additionally, I chose to be on the non-icy surfaces team and the instruments team. On the non-icy surface team, we focused and advocated for studying the interesting surface and subsurface features that Ganymede has to offer, that aren't ice. On the instruments team, we determined which sensors we'd need to carry in order to complete our science objectives. We had to make difficult choices when we didn't have enough money, didn't have enough data bandwidth downlink, didn't have enough power, or was too heavy to carry all that we wanted to fly.

What impressed me the most about the experience was how quickly we were able to design a planetary exploration mission to another world. With the help of experts from JPL's Team X, in just a week, we wrote a mission design paper and an hour-long presentation with technical details and budgets in line with a NASA New Frontiers program mission. The science objectives of the GISMO probe were to study:

• the magnetic field
• the interior
• the surface
• the atmosphere

All for approximately $710 million.

This was my first time at JPL, so I was glad we also got to see the sights. We got a tour of the Mars Exploration Rover mission (Spirit and Opportunity) facilities including rover mock-ups, testbeds, and the controls that give the rovers their schedule. We saw the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity in the clean room before it was launched. It was nice to roam the campus-like grounds, including spending time with the deer. We even saw a show at the Hollywood Bowl, BBC's Planet Earth with the Los Angeles Philharmonic.

Me with a Mars rover mock-up - July 2010

Mars rover testbed - July 2010

Curiosity on a test run in the JPL cleanroom before its stroll on Mars - July 2010

In addition to our NASA presentation that week, we also presented our paper at the Lunar and Planetary Science Conference, the American Astronomical Society's Division for Planetary Science Conference, the American Geophysical Union conference, and the Institute for Electrical and Electronics Engineers' Aerospace conference. If there ever is a NASA mission to Ganymede in the future, I hope that the creators of that mission build upon what we started with GISMO.

A Refreshingly Honest Look at ISRU for Missions to Moons and Mars

It's refreshing to have an honest conversation about human spaceflight. I've written here previously about my frustrations that future human spaceflight hype discredits missions and makes it harder for us in the space world to do our jobs. Spaceflight is difficult, expensive, and takes time. Well-intentioned promoters downplay these challenges, but reality backfires on them. I'm an idealist by nature, but when it comes to the business and technical challenges of space, I'm a realist bordering on skeptic. Show me the detailed plan, show me the money, and show me how the technology is already being developed and tested.

It has been a pleasure to delve into realistic human spaceflight architectures at the Buzz Aldrin Space Institute this week. Only by detailing, step-by-step, a feasible and affordable means of creating a sustainable path to humans living on another world (Earth's Moon, Mars' moons, Mars itself, etc.) with a business case for industry profit can we accomplish such a monumental task. Apollo to the Moon was a one-time effort in history which will not and arguably should not be repeated. For decades, many in the space industry have known that sustainability (settlement, colonization, pioneering, establishing a base or outpost, whatever you want to call it) is what is needed. But there has never been a consensus on how to do it.

In-situ resource utilization (ISRU) is not a new concept but is surprisingly an under-appreciated and under-funded area of study. Instead of needing to bring all resources with us on a rocket from Earth to wherever we're going, it would save a lot of weight (which translates to fuel savings, which translates to money savings) to use the resources that exist in space already. Although it has been politically unpopular to say so for years, a heavy lift rocket such as the Space Launch System is likely not needed if we instead focus on ISRU.

To use two examples that we discussed today at BASI, if we can use lunar and/or Martian regolith (dirt) to create water and rocket fuel/propellant, we would not have to bring extra water and fuel with us on these missions. Existing water/ice H2O can be extracted from the regolith. Electrolysis can break H2O into hydrogen H2 and oxygen O2 which can be used as fuel. All that is needed is energy. On Mars, carbon dioxide CO2 is also available in the atmosphere for ,making fuel.

There are multiple unanswered questions that need to be studied in order to propose this course of action. How do we best mine this regolith, especially the icy regolith? Can and how do we break apart the regolith and ice to extract the elements needed? How much energy would it take? How pure does the water and fuel need to be? Can and how do we create a usable fuel? How much would we save launching from the Moon compared to launching from Earth with Earth's higher gravity? So many questions, too little done in experimentation!

Thankfully, planetary regolith experimentation is one of my things, and I find this all to be exciting questions to ponder and later to test. Unfortunately, so far there hasn't been an organized and collaborative effort. There are scattered teams working on ISRU at NASA centers, universities, and even a few commercial companies, but no one seems to be talking to each other in a productive way to move the field forward. Thankfully, building collaborations is also one of my things. Today's meeting was fun and I look forward to bringing together even more people to advance this effort and get things done!

Money is the main barrier, as it always is. Aside from NASA, I don't know of anyone willing to fund these efforts, and NASA money is scarce. Without much funding, ISRU demonstration progresses at a snail's pace and the concepts and technology won't be ready for prime time when missions are being planned. Of course, missions are also endlessly delayed, so this isn't urgent. Here's where my optimism returns: I believe that public-private partnerships will return humans to other worlds in my lifetime. In fact, I'm holding on to the dream that I'll be among the astronauts to walk on another planetary body. I'm working hard to do my little part to get us there in whatever way I can.

What can we do with lunar regolith? - NASA KSC, January 22, 2015

Mars Mission Imagining with the Buzz Aldrin Space Institute

Last August, my undergraduate alma mater Florida Institute of Technology announced the creation of the Buzz Aldrin Space Institute with Apollo 11 astronaut Buzz Aldrin and his son, Andy Aldrin. On Monday and Tuesday this week, I was excited to attend the inaugural Buzz Aldrin Space Institute Workshop with approximately 40 Florida Tech professors and invited guests. The topic of the workshop was the Aldrin Earth-Mars Cycler concept and, more generally, a human mission to Mars.

Buzz Aldrin opening up the workshop. - January 18, 2016

Buzz opened up the workshop on Monday morning discussing his cycler and his thoughts on spaceflight in general. I met Buzz three or four times previously and had heard him discuss the cycler, but this was the longest and most comprehensive talk I'd seen him give. His plan, Cycling Pathways to Occupy Mars, has evolved over the years and continues to evolve. I've read a few of the studies done to detail and analyze the plan, but I have more research to do in order to understand it all.

In brief, the cycler is a continuous motion spaceflight plan to periodically send cargo and crew to and from Earth and Mars, and also potentially tying in cis-lunar space, the Moon, and Mars' moon Phobos. The timeline, number of vehicles, number of astronauts, and even the types of vehicles used all seem to be in flux depending on studies being done. Buzz seems to be moving away from NASA's Space Launch System SLS (which he sees as a drain of money and wants to see defunded along with the International Space Station) and more toward commercial space industry utilization. Specifically mentioned were Bigelow Aerospace inflatable habitats. International co-operation also seemed to be a key component. The eventual plan is to establish settlements on Phobos and Mars.

The technical details don't appear to be fleshed out well enough to be a true mission architecture at this point. The concept is early-stage and needs refinement. Therefore, the current timelines stated are very optimistic. It's all a good start. In order for this concept to become a proposed mission, more work needs to be done. I look forward to seeing the concept progress.

The international relations need a lot of work. The presentations had countries closely partnering who hate each other (China and Japan, North and South Korea), close partners not working together (Japan and USA, Japan and Europe, China and Russia), and a Mars-interested country forgotten entirely (India). There was also a curious statement that the United States can't go to Mars without China. We've send robotic missions to Mars without China. We'll very likely need international partnerships for a human mission but not necessarily China. China would be a great space partner but I'm not seeing that happen anytime soon.

Most of the rest of the workshop were talks related to the theme in four categories: in-space systems; surface systems and operations; human factors, health, and safety; and international cooperation and public support. Talks included topics such as trajectories, regolith flow due to rocket plumes (similar to a project I did while in grad school), propulsion, autonomous maneuvering, magnetic shielding, habitat analogs and simulators, biomining, Martian terrain, teamwork, mental health (in Buzz's opinion, the #1 human factors concern), costs, and public outeach. Some discussions took unexpected turns. Regarding the mental health talk, I've never heard prisoners of war discussed at a space talk before!

The last few hours of the workshop were break-out session discussions in small groups. I took notes and ended up later presenting for the surface systems and operations group. We covered a lot ground but there's so much more to discuss! It really got me thinking.

The workshop also included dinner on Monday evening. My husband took care of the baby all day Monday and Tuesday, so I took Josephine to dinner with me. She met her first two astronauts: Buzz Aldrin and Sam Durrance. Buzz's 86^th birthday is today so we celebrated on Monday (the day after my birthday). It was a great opportunity to get to know everyone and exchange ideas. I'm pleased to have been involved and look forward to what BASI creates in the future.

Happy birthday, Buzz! cheer Josephine and I from the back - January 18, 2016

Josephine meets her first Moonwalker - January 18, 2016

Science and Sights around Kennedy Space Center

What a better way to wrap up a week and a month than to share with you some cool sights around Kennedy Space Center I've seen in the past week? Sometimes I don't know what I'll spot.

The Space Station Processing Facility (SSPF), where I worked for a summer a few years back, hosts many interesting projects and labs, many of which have nothing to do with the International Space Station. I visited a scientist who is interested in flying NASA life science payloads on various microgravity missions, including parabolic flight. While I was in the building, I met with an engineer who is diving into the world of geology, planetary science, and plant growth and loving every minute of it.

Vials of Mars regolith simulant

A diversity of rocks from the Mojave Desert

Lettuce and cabbage grown in various Mars regolith simulants

Our mutual colleague in the same group allowed me to play with his pocket vials of Mars regolith simulants (fake Mars dirt) JSC-Mars-1A and sand from the Mojave Desert in California. While conducting experimentation for my doctoral research, I played with JSC-Mars-1, but not the other. NASA is resurrecting long-shelved research to grow plants in Mars regolith simulant in preparation for future human missions to Mars. Anyone up for growing potatoes on Mars?

Mars mania at the NASA SSPF gift shop.

Above the S3 Florida office in the Space Life Sciences Laboratory is a scientist who specializes in Martian life conditions, Andy Schuerger. In his lab, he is able to recreate Martian conditions such as temperature, atmospheric pressure, and radiation levels. He also has the largest collection of Mars regolith simulant that I've ever seen. For anyone wanting to know about the survivability of life on Mars, he's one to talk to.

Chamber for replicating Martian conditions

Mars regolith simulant galore!

On one rainy afternoon, I caught sight of a low rainbow on the water horizon not far from the giant Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) while driving on NASA Causeway. So pretty!

Rainbow on the horizon

I had wanted to end this entry with a photo of a rocket launch, but that will have to wait. Go Atlas!

Journey to Mars... Why? And Where's the To Infinity and Beyond?

Hanging out with my celestial buddy Mars - Oct. 2015

"Why Mars? Mars is the horizon goal for pioneering space; it is the next tangible frontier for expanding human presence.”

- NASA's Journey to Mars: Pioneering Next Steps in Space Exploration

I hadn't even finished reading the document NASA released last week when questions popped into my head that the report couldn't answer. Why are we so focused on Mars? What is a horizon goal? And why the sudden shift to the word pioneering? (I still don't have an answer to that last one – anyone have an insight?)

The term “horizon goal” comes from the National Research Council's 2014 report: Pathways to Exploration.

“The technical analysis completed for this study shows clearly that for the foreseeable future the only feasible destinations for human exploration are the Moon, asteroids, Mars, and the moons of Mars. Among that small set of plausible goals for human space exploration, the most distant and difficult is a landing by human beings on the surface of Mars; it would require overcoming unprecedented technical risk, fiscal risk, and programmatic challenges. Thus, the 'horizon goal' for human space exploration is Mars. All long-range space programs, by all potential partners, for human space exploration converge on that goal.”

The report expands upon this reasoning in a later section. Within their interpretation of feasible for the foreseeable future, there are two destinations with gravity wells, and we should pursue the farther and more difficult one: Mars. Is it just me, or does this seem arbitrary and unnecessarily limiting?

It has been a slightly Mars-centric year for me. For Christmas last year, my husband gifted me Mars and a few other solar system body plush toys which made an appearance at my wedding in January. Early in the year I read Ray Bradbury's The Martian Chronicles (which I strongly disliked – heresy, I know). I read Andy Weir's The Martian mid-year and caught the excellent movie on opening night. With the Hollywood celebrations, hyped-up NASA Mars water findings, and the unrealistic but much promoted NASA Journey to Mars report, it's no surprise that Mars is on everyone's mind and lips.

I have nothing against Mars. I support human and robotic exploration of Mars just as much as the Moon or any other location. I greatly prefer this turn of direction over the humans-to-asteroid silliness that even the creator of the idea couldn't convince me was a good one. My doctoral research had just as much to do with Martian regolith as it did lunar, asteroid, planetasimal, and any other solar system regolith.

Mars regolith simulant under a microscope - summer 2012

I do have a strong personal bias toward the Moon. The Moon is right there, our closest neighbor, just waiting for us to explore and study in in the ways we didn't and couldn't do in the decades past. The third grader in me that wrote a story about being an astronaut on the Moon still wants that reality. The explorer in me wants to walk on another world, a world truly accessible within my lifetime. The planetary scientist in me wants to examine all of the questions that we can't answer any other way than field geology.

In comparison, I have little interest in being an astronaut on Mars or on a space station. I won't say no to either of those pursuits, but my heart is elsewhere. I have interest in suborbital spaceflight because I believe that it is the most obtainable goal for a private citizen such as myself. I have a great deal of interest in companies such as Golden Spike who work toward private lunar missions, even if it seems like a dream goal.

But that's just me. Others have their favorite destinations, their callings, their dreams and pie-in-the-sky goals. My personal dream should not limit anyone. The personal dream of others to land humans on Mars should not limit anyone. Why should the NRC, NASA, or anyone else define a horizon goal and stop there? Let's say we humans plant our flag on the Martian surface – what then? Do we stop, as we did with Apollo? Do we settle? Do we explore on? If the latter, what makes Mars a horizon goal any more than the Moon or low-Earth orbit or any other destination or achievement?

Mars is a goal, without a doubt. But it should not be the goal. No one has the right to define and scope what the future objectives for humanity are or could be. That's up to all of us collectively and it's up to the generations that will come after us. Why should we let the hype of 2015 limit us? It's all arbitrary anyway. Moon last week, asteroid yesterday, Mars today, what tomorrow?

Our robots explore Mars currently, such as MSL Curiosity - JPL, July 2010

“There is a consensus in national space policy, international coordination groups, and the public imagination that Mars is the horizon goal of human space exploration,” wrote the National Research Council in 2014. No, there is no consensus, and that's the point. We humans change our minds, we debate and disagree, we hold different perspectives, we challenge each other, and we accomplish more that way.

Wayne Hale wrote in his blog a year ago: 

"Today we are chasing our tails because the space experts debate destinations: Moon, Mars, or asteroid? O’Neill and I say do them all. The ‘horizon goal’ isn’t Mars, it is the entire solar system. When we have built colonies on every habitable niche, then maybe we will find a way to go to the stars. I didn’t say bankrupt the treasury. Don’t squander other people’s money; figure out how to do it anyway. Nobody said that it would be easy. But what is our choice?”

I concur. Let 2015 be the year to celebrate Mars (and Pluto!). But let's not limit 2016 and beyond.

Mars or Bust: Mars One Busted and Other Hopefuls

Knowing that I'm a planetary scientist and a space enthusiast, numerous people have been asking me about Mars over the past couple of weeks. Mars seems to be capturing people's attention and imagination, especially with the NASA Orion and Mars One news lately. People within the industry can't agree about what to make of it all, so the news media simplifies what they pick up and bits and pieces get out into the public conversation. When a marketing friend sent me a text message on Friday with a question from her boss about the group of astronauts going to Mars in five years, I knew I had to write about it.

To set the record straight: astronauts are not going to Mars in the next 5 years. Astronauts are not going to Mars in the next 15 years. I heard a news clip the last week where the anchor stated that it's widely accepted that the generation of our youth will land on Mars. This is not generally accepted nor is it a presumption we can make. I hope that astronauts land on Mars while I'm alive to see it, though nothing is certain.

Robotic probes have been to Mars. We have several active orbiters and rovers on or around the planet right now, collecting data for science. More scientific missions will launch to Mars in the next few years. Whether humans go to Mars depends on human considerations: funding priorities, technological advances, perseverance, and most importantly, political will.

The biggest Mars newsmaker at the moment is Mars One, the European company that wants to send a group of civilians on a one-way trip to the planet and fund the expedition with profits from a reality TV show. In the news lately is the list of 100 candidates who may be selected for the expedition, two of which are from my doctoral alma mater, one of which is a former classmate and lab colleague of mine. I've eaten in his home, met his wife and first child, and visited his church with him; he seems like a perfectly sane and rational person to me.

Making smaller headlines is the news about the MIT study that outlines how these potential astronauts might die very quickly and news that the original reality TV show production company has dropped the idea after they failed to agree on a contract. Others have also reported that they have very little raised in funds, no known hardware built, and contracted engineering studies with reputable companies have not been continued. The chances of them launching an expedition to anywhere other than this planet anytime soon are laughable. The fact that they launched a IndiGoGo crowd-funding campaign a year ago to take money from the wide-eyed and believing public takes the laughter out of me and makes me very wary of their intentions.

Just today, I read an article featuring one of the 100 candidates calling Mars One a scam for encouraging the candidates to donate money to the company and buy merchandise in order to increase their selection rankings. He also reports that the 100 candidates have had no training and were selected based on an initial video and a 10 minute video call. I had been using the phrase, “one step up from a scam,” but I applaud the courageously blunt wording.

I met the CEO of Mars One, Bas Lansdorp, at a conference two years ago. He was a keynote speaker at the the International Space Development Conference in San Diego. I was working as VIP Relations and handled all of the keynote speakers. I ended up having lunch with him and chatting with him even more about his goals and mission. I received standard answers that didn't really address my questions or provide any additional information. My impression even at that time: great skepticism. “Quite honestly, I don't think that it will happen, but I hope that he proves me wrong,” I wrote in my personal journal. My skepticism has only increased.

Buzz Aldrin asking Bas Lansdorp a question. I'm in the red dress on the left.

I had forgotten about this encounter until I refreshed my memory by reading my personal journal. Buzz Aldrin was sitting a few seats from me in the front row of Bas Lansdorp's talk. During the question and answer period, the Apollo astronaut suggested that Mars One could partner with the Golden Spike Company, a private lunar travel company aiming to send astronauts to the Moon. Bas seemed interested in the idea. Using my phone, I immediately sent an email to Golden Spike CEO Alan Stern about it. Alan wrote back immediately, so I talked to Bas about it after his talk and introduced them via email after. All of that happened within a matter of minutes. That is what happens when a millennial is sitting in the front row with the internet at her fingertips!

I have no idea if anything became of that exchange, but I digress. My point is, Mars One's actions over the past two years have only increased my skepticism of their plans. Buzz Aldrin has his own Mars transportation concept which will likely remain a paper project. Dennis Tito's fly-by Inspiration Mars mission with an older married couple seems to also have fizzled and died, or if anything is still being worked on, it's unknown to me. Last I heard, he asked NASA to help fund it, which is laughable because NASA can't even fully fund their own missions.

Which brings me to NASA's Mars ambitions. NASA certainly is serious about exploring the red planet and has sent many precursor robotic missions, but funding and political direction have been lacking and I see no signs that this will change. There was so much publicity surrounding the Orion capsule Exploration Flight Test (EFT-1) launch in December. A close friend of mine was working that mission and I was excited for her. But NASA PR was on overdrive, and not in a good way. Little of what was reported was truthful about the complexities of the mission and the future of NASA's human exploration program.

NASA is a government agency. Simply, the President sets the direction and Congress gives the money. The Presidential Administration and Congress have not been in agreement about NASA's direction since as long as I've been alive. President Obama said, “Let's go to an asteroid!” pretty much because it was something different than what President Bush had said (his direction was Moon-bound). Congress has been fighting him ever since. NASA is hopelessly lost until the Presidential Administration and Congress agree about the intermediate steps. But we all agree that Mars is the ultimate goal, someday, somehow. It certainly won't be in the budget and time frame they propose.

I'm only discussing human missions to Mars here. There are several robotic missions on the red planet operating right now: Mars Odyssey, Mars Express, Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity, MAVEN, and an Indian probe called Mars Orbiter Mission. The European Space Agency will launch ExoMars in 2016 and 2018. NASA's Mars 2020 rover is under consideration. NASA and partners have had huge successes in recent years sending robots to Mars. This is a great and crucial first step to human missions.

When I was working on my doctorate in planetary science, I spent the summer of 2012 working with Phil Metzger at Kennedy Space Center. Through my study with him, I learned that humans cannot easily land on Mars without a landing pad. The regolith (dirt) is too light and unstable to withstand blasts from retrorockets, so something as heavy as the Curiosity rover is about the limit that the ground can take. A human-carrying lander would blast a crater so unstable that they wouldn't be able to land. Somehow, we need to send a robot up there to build a landing pad before we land humans. There's also talk of using a robot to autonomously build other infrastructure such as habitats for humans when we land. The technology to do this is in the works but it will take us decades before we figure out how to do it.

I blasted regolith-like granular materials (in this case, beach sand) with jets of gas and watched the crater form.

I took microscope-scaled images of the regolith materials. This one is called JSC-Mars-1.

I do have faith in one man to accomplish what he sets his mind to: Elon Musk. Whether it's PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX, or any of his other ventures, that man gets things done. By modifying one of his Dragon capsules, he thinks that he can land humans on Mars with the help of NASA in a mission called Red Dragon. He is almost always overly optimistic with his schedule, so this won't happen any time soon. He has his own rockets, his own lander, and his own money, though he likely will need NASA's assistance. His goal is to retire on Mars and I hope he gets there. Though I'll have to see it to believe it.

Very little of what I see in the news about humans on Mars is realistic or honest, and that's disheartening. It's one thing to have a serious discussion about whether we as a society are willing to commit to a multi-decade, tens-of-billion or hundreds-of-billion dollar mission to send humans to Mars. It's another thing to give soundbite answers about how we're sending humans to Mars in 5 years, 10 years, 20 years. But the latter claim is what catches headlines and gets people excited.

I want people to get excited about space exploration! I worry that the kind of unrealistic discussion that has been promoted lately will turn people off and reenforce the notion that space exploration is a waste of money. As space advocates, if we're not honest sources of information about the industry, then why should the public and our legislators trust us? Let us further an honest dialog and further humanity's progress in our solar system.